Detailed bbl piece took hours time to cover many parts so give it a go to understand n can prove fruitful long term. (ITNA SAB STUDY YAHA DAAL RAHE TAKE AAGE SABKE KAAM AA SAKE KHUD SE, ISSE ZYADA AUR KYA Kare. Hopefully sabke kaam aye. As apan every game nahi honge available fb par aage. Good luck)
As usual we put up overview before any big league coming and tries to cover something’s in that. Firstly about what’s been trend in past and then what’s the recipe for success over the years. Then we comes onto team by team study. Gonna go same way this time as well.
So a look at last yr Big bash league overview first on different parameters. One change this year that bbl lengthened and now 59 games almost ipl sized. Last yr 43 games in total. First thing we look at any defend or chase bias. Well last yr it was even Stevens. 21 defend. 22 chase. Before that 6 bbl seasons happened of those only bbl1&3 when more defends than chase. In rest either chaser won more or almost evens. In bbl5 it was 12 defend 22 chase. So last yr evens Stevens wasn’t any bias towards any side. All that in simple table.
Bbl7 21. 22
Bbl6 12 22
Bbl5 15. 20
Bbl4. 16. 17
Bbl3. 19. 14
Bbl2. 14. 21
Bbl1. 21. 10
Then we looks either home teams got any advantage of knowing the conditions. Home teams won around 25 while away teams won 18. So that shows home teams do hv an edge there.
Then we looks at whether toss proves any crucial role of teams getting to do what they consider better on particular ground. In total 43 games, 27-29 times around toss winner team go onto be match winner whereas only 14 times around toss loser got match win. That’s whopping 67% win rate for toss winners or can say like 2/3rd games last season won by toss winners. That’s significant edge.
When looks at whether home adv mix’s up with toss won then any significance. Then off the 29 toss winners going to win match 19 were home teams and 10 away teams.
So out of 25 home wins 19 came when they won toss. Only 6 home wins after losing toss. Out of 18 away wins, 10 came when won toss. Rest 8 came when lost toss.
Simply put :-
Home team -> 27 toss wins :- 19 games won, 8 lost.
Away team -> 16 toss wins :- 10 games won, 6 lost.
So now should b clear. Home teams won more last yr nearly 60%. But toss had imp role. They won more tosses and as result got 70% win rate when won toss at home. For away team when they won toss win rate 63%. That’s one thing noticed from last yr.
Now comes to another scenario which punters mostly wanna look at. What’s the chances of non fav teams. Well in that regard bbl is much like ipl. Over the yrs non fav teams go into win 40% around or above games and even more than half in some seasons. That’s y punters enjoy bbl. last yr also it was evens as around 21 games won by nonfav and 22 by fav teams. More often those comes at early weeks of tourny as with new lineups mkt takes time to gauge which team stronger n with time n form gets settled as season goes on. Moreover like ipl, in bbl also seen over the yrs only 16-18% games go dead straight fav win means not even flips. While rest games gv both teams odds on atleast once. Same like we see in ipl. This yr bbl is ipl sized so let’s see how they keep that going.
That’s regarding last season details in numbers which shows some edge there.
Now gets onto what the success recipe been over the years.
Well one line we often say, “Batsman wins you games, Bowlers wins you Trophies”.
That holds right almost everywhere around the world in most leagues. Certainly in bbl as well. Look at most successful bbl team Perth. Their strength been tight bowling lineup over the yrs. result they reached top4 all seasons and played 5 finals as well. They got 3 bbl trophy to their name. Can see last yr winners Adelaide as well their bowling was top notch. So all in all good tight bowling lineup is must for cup winner teams going deep in tourney.
Next thing is regular core group of players maintaining consistent lineup. Many teams often takes first half of season chopping n changing finding their perfect xi and till then much goes out of their hands. That’s y settled teams often go deep in leagues.
Another point which is much imp is home dominance. Seen over the yrs winner teams make their home ground their fortress. Again look at Perth they were almost unbeatable there over the yrs. can see other leagues teams as well. That’s y home dominance imp thing to have. So these three things often prove main for success.
Now we move to team by team analysis :-
We’ll go by favouritism in mkt. in past bbl seasons one trend been popular. Perth stars Sixers mostly feature in top4 n battle for fourth spot bw other teams on which often outsider team comes in. As Perth reached top4 all season n played 5 final. Stars also featured all semis until last yr. Sixers also featured in semis 4-5 yrs. so we used to look for one of that team from outsider on big odds which can get in. Last yr that changed much as both star Sixers failed miserably. So top4 were Perth adelaide Hobart renegades. Over the yrs we used to lay fav cup team as they were mostly star or heat. This time it’s Perth so can’t do that as most successful team.
Perth and Adelaide both are top fav for bbl @6 each. Looks mkt finally got mind right n not gone for big bats n big names. As both these teams bowling strength teams. Now looks at both separately.
Defending champs Adelaide strikers. Their main strength was bowling n still is. Same lineup more or less. They got Rashid the Khan. Then overall highest wkt taker in bbl in Laughlin. Stanlake Siddle done well last yr. neser allrounder also good with ball. So this 5 man bowling attack vgood for them esp with 3 of them can bat as well so gvs depth in batting. Issue is what if any injury or intl callup. Their backup bowling not hv any recognised name. Moreover their main issues were in batting last yr as they many times put up medium scores or lower which thanks to their bowling they still got wins. Expect same to see this yr as well. In batting their captain head who was nearly their second highest scorer n had 50+ avg last yr is not going to play most part this yr as with aus team. They got Carey Weatherald Ingram matshort. That’s it after that issues arises if top order not clicks. Lehmann n wells there but they been hit n miss players in past. As long as their bowling unit stay fit n clicks we expect them to go deep in tourny again.
Perth scorchers. Joint fav this year. As always their strength bowling. Last yr also they were superb. Lost only one game in group stage but in semis lost high scorer game as bowling had off day. Last yr been bit different though as in past they liked defending as their bowling enjoy that. But last yr they enjoyed chasing as their bowling keeps opposition or medium lower scores mostly then they chase those down. At bat first one issue coming for them that not putting up enough score n that ruins chances. In bowling they got pacers brigade in tye,jhye,Willey,Behrendorff,Paris,kelly. That’s quality. They hv agar as spin option and they added Usman Qadir spinner n son of former pak leggie legend. He based in aus so domestic pick n Perth got just one overseas player this yr as well. Against this lineup most bat teams struggle. Prob arises in batting only when they are behind high target. Not many high strike rate bats they hv. Only couple there. Seen last yr when turner won them couple games with hitting. He was top scorer. Will need more of that. Klinger who highest bbl scorer overall failed last year. Bancroft Cartwright agar Whiteman marsh also there. Most batters suited to medium score games. Shaun marsh gonna miss most games. One mention for Willey. Hv to use him wisely like he used in English domestic games. His numbers are much better than lower order bat. Esp his ability to hit 4s 6s. Should be used at top to make Perth batting lethal. Apart from slow looking batting no other issue is Perth team always backable team. Change is the rule of nature they say. And that’s what hapnd for them. Coach langer gone to aus coach staff. So Voges new coach. And no more waca home den for them. New Perth ground home for them. Which not gone well last yr as they lost semi there. Hv to see how they cope with those changes as home dominance proved massive for their wins over yrs. still with such squad should b going deep.
Next on mkt favourite chart are heat.
Brisbane heat. Well they are replica of RCB.
Some things common in them. One Vettori as coach. His record poor as coach around the world. RCB changed him. But he still with heat. They are batting dominant team with less imp gvn to bowling. Just fill team with bashers with bat in hand. Every yr they do same thing. Last yr they got leggie shadab in but it’s not about only one two player in bowler. Esp when their home is Gabba which one of best bat ground in aus. This yr they brought Mujeeb in which gvs some weightage to their bowling esp early on against aus bats who not seen him before. They got Pattinson in as well but his numbers not been great in past. Steketee been one constant better bowler in past for them but other than that looks bowling gonna struggle again unless spin twin Mujeeb Swepson gets help. In batting they got 8-9 good names and most high strike rate ones which goes well on flat decks but when comes on tricky ones can flatter to deceive n collapse. An eye on young batsmen max who been big hitter in domestic aus cricket. When such batting heavy teams comes we mostly just pass them on as such teams once in blue moon only gets hands on cup and often we oppose such teams in cup if they go strong favs.
Next are Melbourne stars. They were next fav on mkt but now drifted to 10. Mainly due to injury to Nic Maddinson their new recruit from Sixers. He looks out for early part n rest depend on how serious his injury is. No kp no wright this yr. maxwell is captain. Last yr they were poor n that made many changes this yr. they failed to put up enough score on board n even take wkts as well. So they addressed bowling by bringing in last yr joint highest wkt taker bravo. Also comes Nepalese leggie sandeep. And plunkett as well. Other bowling options also look well for them n it will depend on those others how their bowling goes. On paper looks better bowling lineup. Issues comes for them in batting. N even got worse with Maddinson injury. They hv dunk. Who inconsistent. Be hero one season then zero in other. Which one turn up this yr will decide stars batting Performance. Then they hv bravo maxwell stoinis in batting. After them who? Nothing known name. Handscomb is in test team so will come later. Looks their lack of batting depth gonna hurt them unless dunk gets a hero season this yr or some young bat gets going. With their bowling they were looking bright prospect to me this yr but injury n lack of batting depth putting us away.
Next Hobart hurricanes. Last yrs runners up but still long odds why. Bcoz they rided on short extra ordinary dream run of batting when he got 572 runs at 50+ avg. their bowling did hv issues but their batting made up for most of them. Even then their win loss record was 5-5 last yr. will short hv same season is doubtful. Bowling been issue for them as often after posting good totals on board opposition either chase it or comes close fighting hard. So let’s hv look at bowling first. Their top wkt taker was archer. This yr his availability not clear whether he stay in eng to get eligible for next yr wcup or play here. Other than him who else. Mills who proved expensive last yr. Faulkner who good with changeups but his good days looks goneby. Botha who looks fine economy wise but not big wkt threat. One much talked about young pacer summers. All in all this bowling unit looks one of worst to us n if Jofra don’t turn up its gonna b disaster. We used to like Hobart in past but they gone heat way. Have big batters but bowling light. That’s y over the yrs we seen heat vs Hobart games been high scorer’s. In batting they got short wade bailey McDermott Paine Faulkner. Some good players but no depth. And note it down ✍🏻👀 Hobart when on bat gonna gv some gubbings when high scores gets chased vs them. Light bowling team so not liked by us.
Next Melbourne renegades. They reached semis last yr. still why high odds. Well we were looking to get on them some time back. But intl callups alongwith key player out done them damage. Their top scorer last yr Harris is now with aus test team so will not b available for first couple weeks. Finch also gonna b out most time unless he gets dropped from aus Odis. That’s two regular openers gone. And they lost last yr highest wkt taker bravo to stars. Defending been their issue over yrs. to address that they brought overseas bowlers in gurney n Usman. But nabi already there so who two will play. They got other 4-5 bowling options as well who look good strike rate wise but economy on high. So when they have good day they can keep oppositions to under par scores but when hv bad day they can leak big runs. In batting the real issue as two openers not around so they left with white nabi christian Cooper Ludeman then long tail in batting. So they will b in need of runs. Tricky situation there as if they had both openers then good balance team.
Next Sydney thunder. Well the wooden spooners. We can proudly say that two yrs back we backed them for cup and they gone onto win it. Not easy task to say that. As in other 6 seasons they ended up in bottom two three. That season we caught value bcoz they had three great allrounders in Kallis Watson n Russell. Then they had mussey and also red hot form khwaja. They made it count that yr. after that again same story. Their bowling lacks zipp n batting often not put up enough runs. This yr again some positive vibes for them as they bring in English duo Buttler n root. But only for first month or so. How wise is that. Last yr Watson was top scorer n Buttler second. No other gone good. Both shown good form in ipl n if shows here at top then thunder in with shout. Their bowling lacked wkts last yr as result they failed to defend over par scores. N when on chase had such above par scores n in pursuit they got heavy beatings not getting close. In bowling they depend much on spin as got fawad green Nair Devcich. Eyes on green whose numbers bowling in pp good. In pacer they got sams from sixer whose numbers look good. He can prove good buy as allrounder n can hit long ball as well. Rest pacers hv issue as Sandhu expensive bowler and Cummins not gonna b available for much games. Watson bowls or not also issue. Jordan will join later when root Buttler gone. Couple young pacers left. So pace dept looks light. Unless spin helping condition their bowling can struggle. If gets conditions favourable then their bowling balanced. In batting is where strength looks this yr. Watson. Root. Buttler. Ferguson. After tests khwaja comes in. Other bats lower strike rate bats. If those top3 fire then they in game. Hv to b in mind if flat tracks then their bowling will ship big runs.
And last Sydney Sixers. Who are way outsider @11+. Once used to be second best side in bbl after Perth. Been poor recent yrs. mainly due to lack of batting firepower and many key players out with aus. Matters don’t look easy this yr also with bat. As their two of top3 scores last yr gone. Maddinson out to stars n billings out. Due to their lack of batting they been losing mostly when on first bat. As couldn’t put on par or above par scores. They got Joe Denly in this yr who looked good when played some games last yr n alongwith him other opener is Hughes who also done well in past n in form. That opening duo main positive for them. Key thing is sixer decided to rely on young players this yr. so obviously unknown names unknown commodity n mkt priced them as per that. They prove heroes also n vice versa. Other known bats are Henriques silk O’Keefe. That’s it. They have as many as 5-7 young players in so surely gonna play them. Many are exciting prospects as some good in domestic circuit like jack edward who hits long ball and josh phillipe. In bowling they got Abbott Dwarshius both wkt taker but high economy. Tom Curran also there. Spin left to O’Keefe n Denly until Lyon comes in after tests. Henriques another option. Rest depend on young players. In batting they much dependant on openers if they fires then Sixers looks dark horse this year with unknown quantities in young players. Either way their games gonna b interesting one this yr hopefully young players go well. Sixer every season produce some chase gubbings over the yrs as well.
So that’s team by team view point. Perth n Adelaide looks standout to go deep due to their bowling. While heat n Hobart looks unlikely with light bowling. Both Melbourne n Sydney teams hv their own issues regarding balance n depth. Sixer can prove dark horse depending on two things openers and young players.
That concludes Big bbl overview. Important ground detailed study not included here. Those will come in running as games approaches. Good luck all of us. Hopefully all goes well again